Hindsight Bias(HB) makes us believe that an event is more predictable than it was in hindsight. He/She/I should have seen that coming. Why should they have seen it coming?
You are not going to see it coming. In the accident investigations I have done, a common refrain during the interview is, “I didn’t know what happened” or “It happened so fast, by the time I realized something was wrong, it was over.”
“It happened so fast, by the time I realized something was wrong, it was over.”
Where HB is really damaging is where it prevents our ability to correct. An accident happens. We do the investigation, look for the causes and make recommendations about how to avoid similar situations in the future. Sometimes these recommendations are not acted on or taken seriously, because the people in charge or doing the work believe no correction is needed because they/we will see it coming next time, “We don’t need to change what we are doing.”
While it is true that we cannot predict and control a particular incident and avoid ‘it.’ It is true we can predict potential incidents and control systems to avoid incidents.
control systems to avoid incidents
If there is an accident or a near miss on your site, corrective action is needed, or it will happen again. You will not see it coming this time either.